COP31 opens with a push for electrification as China struggles to use all its wind and solar power
London, 9 November 2026. At the opening of the UN climate conference in Antalya, Türkiye, the host government renewed its call for electricity to supply 35% of the energy used by the world’s end consumers by 2035. For China, the challenge extends beyond building wind farms and installing solar panels. Reporting on Asian grids as the conference opened, the Associated Press described how substantial amounts of electricity that Chinese wind and solar plants could produce never reach consumers. UN climate conference opening statements AP report from Antalya AP reporting on electricity grids
China’s National Energy Administration says renewable sources generated nearly two trillion kilowatt-hours in the first half of this year, or 41.2% of national electricity output. For the same six months, the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air and Global Energy Monitor estimate that a further 360 billion kilowatt-hours of potential wind and solar output went unused. Both figures can be true. The first counts renewable electricity actually generated, including from sources such as hydropower. The second estimates additional output available from wind and sunshine. They are not rival sets of official figures. GEM and CREA coal power review AP reporting on electricity grids National Energy Administration figures
What the 35% would measure
The denominator is all the energy finally used in homes, transport and industry. Replacing a petrol car with an electric one, or a gas boiler with a heat pump, counts towards electrification. Replacing a coal plant with a wind farm can change the emissions from generation without changing the type of energy used by a machine already running on electricity. The presidency’s 35% figure is therefore neither a target for renewables’ share of generation nor a requirement for countries to convert 35% of their generating plants into wind farms. Presidency’s announcement in Bonn UN climate conference opening statements IEA electricity demand outlook
Türkiye announced the initiative at the Bonn climate meetings on 9 June and brought it to the opening plenary on 9 November. In its Electricity 2026 outlook, the International Energy Agency (IEA) puts electricity’s share of global final consumption at 21% in 2025 and projects 24% by 2030. One is an estimate for a past year; the other is a forecast. Neither is a new emissions pledge negotiated by governments. The presidency wants the share to rise further by 2035. An opening speech does not turn that ambition into a binding national quota. Presidency’s announcement in Bonn IEA electricity demand outlook
In a briefing before the conference in October, Li Gao, the Chinese delegation leader and vice-minister for ecology and environment, said greater use of electricity by end consumers was in line with China’s policy. He noted differences of view over the voluntary initiative and asked the presidency to take national circumstances into account in seeking broader support. On 9 November the Chinese government website restated a separate domestic goal for 2035: non-fossil sources are to supply more than 30% of total energy consumption. That target concerns the source of energy, not electricity’s share of final use. Chinese environment ministry briefing China’s annual climate policy briefing Chinese government portal, 9 November
Why a wind farm can be ready but unable to deliver
Consider a unit of electricity at a wind farm. When the wind blows, the network needs room to carry the power away. Someone must be able to use it at the time, or there must be somewhere to store it for later. When a line reaches its safe operating limit, a system operator can instruct the plant to reduce output. In this context, curtailment generally means electricity that could have been generated but was not. It does not mean power was put into a battery and then discarded. A plant’s rated capacity alone tells a city little about how much power it can receive from that plant on a particular evening. AP reporting on electricity grids IEA analysis of grid investment
In their study published in August, the researchers’ estimate of 360 terawatt-hours includes both reported curtailment and an estimate of what went unreported. On their figures, it was 49% higher than a year earlier. They compare it with the increase in China’s electricity demand: over the half-year as a whole, using that potential output could have covered all the growth and left room for coal generation to fall. The comparison illustrates scale. It is not an hourly supply schedule. Surplus midday solar power in one province does not become available to another province that evening simply because the two quantities balance on paper. GEM and CREA coal power review AP reporting on electricity grids
The National Energy Administration puts China’s combined wind and solar capacity at 1.95 billion kilowatts at the end of June. Kilowatts measure the capacity of equipment; kilowatt-hours measure the electricity it generates over time. Official figures also show coal supplied about 2.5 trillion kilowatt-hours in the first half, or 49.7% of national output. The research team estimates that coal generation was nevertheless 3.4% higher than a year earlier. In a growing electricity system, coal can account for a smaller fraction of the total while supplying more electricity in absolute terms. National Energy Administration figures CREA analysis of electricity contracts
Beijing has made connections to the grid an explicit part of its five-year electricity plan. The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration envisage non-fossil sources providing 50% of generation by 2030, a grid able to accommodate more than 2.8 billion kilowatts of new energy capacity, and charging infrastructure capable of supporting over 110 million electric vehicles. The first measure is about electricity generated; the other two are about what the system should be able to support. Even with enough chargers, whether drivers plug in during daylight, overnight or at the evening peak matters for the network. China’s five-year electricity plan National Energy Administration figures
The researchers also identify a less visible constraint: electricity contracts. Under the arrangements they describe, coal generators in 2026 are still expected to sign annual contracts covering roughly 60–70% of the electricity they delivered the previous year. Long contracts can reduce uncertainty about prices and supply for both sides. Reserving a large volume of sales for coal in a province with plentiful wind or sunshine, however, may leave less room in the market for renewable power. That is the authors’ assessment of the incentives. It does not attribute all curtailment nationwide to a single contract or power station. CREA analysis of electricity contracts GEM and CREA coal power review
They propose reducing minimum contracting requirements specific to coal in provinces where renewables are regularly curtailed. They would also separate payments for reliability from guarantees of electricity sales. A generator that can ramp up in an emergency provides a valuable service; whether it should also have a guaranteed share of sales in ordinary hours is a different question. Storage, trade between provinces and shifting some demand away from peak hours can all provide flexibility. These are proposals in the report, not arrangements it claims are already in place throughout China. CREA analysis of electricity contracts IEA analysis of grid investment
From grid investment to kitchens and clinics
Networks often take longer to build than the plants they serve. The IEA estimates that planning, permitting and completing new grid infrastructure can take five to fifteen years, against one to five years for a wind or solar project. To serve projected demand by 2030, it estimates annual worldwide grid investment needs to rise by about half from roughly US$400 billion. That is an estimate of global investment needs, not a fund already raised in Antalya or a bill assigned to China. Even when money is available, supplies of equipment such as transformers and the availability of skilled workers affect when a line can enter service. IEA analysis of grid investment AP reporting on electricity grids
The IEA also points out that networks designed for peak demand often have spare capacity at other times. Making room for some customers need not always await an entirely new transmission line. A project might connect earlier on terms that allow it to use spare capacity but require it to reduce demand during congestion. That does not replace essential reinforcement. A limited connection is plainly worth less than a firm one to a customer that must keep operating precisely when the system is most stretched. IEA analysis of grid investment
China’s influence on the global goal is apparent in the scale of new demand. The IEA expects the country to account for almost half of the growth in world electricity consumption from 2026 to 2030. Many sectors contribute to that growth. Rising national sales cannot establish that a remote clinic has a more reliable supply or that a low-income family can afford electrical appliances. The World Health Organization treats reliable electricity in health facilities as a public health concern in its own right. From a treatment room, the relevant question is whether lighting, refrigeration and essential equipment work when patients need them. IEA electricity demand outlook WHO on energy and health
Household energy choices have direct consequences for health. WHO lists electricity among the cooking options it considers clean at the point of use. In poorly ventilated kitchens, smoke from burning coal or biomass increases the risk of heart and lung disease. WHO’s China office also identifies coal-fired plants, industry, transport and household solid fuels as major sources of air pollution in China. Switching to an electric hob can spare a household smoke from a cooking fire. How much pollution is avoided at the generating end depends on which plants run. Both matter for health; neither benefit can be measured by counting installed capacity alone. WHO fact sheet on household air pollution WHO China on air pollution
What Beijing and the conference presidency are asking for
Before the conference, Li called for negotiations to focus on implementation and finance, particularly emissions cuts by developed countries and their financial support for developing ones. He also sought discussion of trade measures that could impede climate co-operation. Simon Stiell, the UN climate chief, approached the issue from the recipient’s end in his opening remarks: developing countries can struggle to access funds even after money has been committed and is nominally available. Both interventions concern finance. One asks who should provide it; the other also asks whether it can actually be spent on a project. Chinese environment ministry briefing UN climate conference opening statements
Australia’s climate and energy minister Chris Bowen, who is chairing the negotiations, linked electrification in his opening statement to investment in modern networks, storage, efficiency and skills. He said many countries with energy transition or adaptation plans could not obtain finance on the terms or timetable they needed. In clean cooking, bringing a line to a community is one expense; enabling families to use suitable stoves and energy is another. WHO stresses the importance of reaching households with limited resources if better access to clean energy is to narrow existing health inequalities. UN climate conference opening statements WHO fact sheet on household air pollution
The UN has scheduled the Antalya leaders’ summit for 11 and 12 November. China’s foreign ministry previously announced that Vice-President Han Zheng would attend as President Xi Jinping’s special representative. What the opening day establishes is that the presidency has taken its electrification goal to the plenary and China has set out its policy position in advance. A timetable cannot establish what leaders will promise. For households, businesses and public services, a meaningful measure alongside new installations is how much of the power that could have been generated actually reaches the people who need it. UN leaders’ summit programme Chinese foreign ministry announcement UN climate conference opening statements
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